Author: Mohamed Jouneidi Abderrazak
Reserch assistant: Itaf Mejri
Edited and reviewed by: Dr. Imen Louati and Maha Ben Ghadha

Translation from French to English: Ahlem Selmi
Design and layout by: ozads.org

The ongoing war between Ukraine and Russia that started in February 2022 has strongly impacted the food status at the global level and in North African countries.

Tunisia, whose food situation has already been weakened by the effects of the crisis resulting from COVID 19 pandemic in the years 2019 and 2020, has been compelled to manage the impact of the Russian-Ukrainian war in a context marked by ailing public finances and faltering economic growth.

This climate has brought to the surface a certain capacity for food resilience on the part of all actors in the Tunisian food system, but has also brought to light several cyclical vulnerabilities. Indeed, several strategic sectors such as the cereal and milk sectors have displayed alarming signs with respect to several aspects related to food security.

The methodology employed in this study has been designed around an analysis of the macroeconomic impact of the war until the end of September 2022 by examining changes in the main macroeconomic aggregates related to food availability and access for citizens. The study then focused on indicators relating to four key food value chains for Tunisians: cereals, red meat, milk, and fruit and vegetables. Subsequently, the study focused on the impact of this war as felt on a microeconomic level. To this end, 400 farmers were surveyed in November 2022, along with a number of institutional actors and experts for each value chain.

Based on the analyses conducted, impacts at various levels of the value chains studied were highlighted, calling for a consolidation of all current food policies.

In addition, reviewing certain policy and strategic choices from the dual perspective of strengthening global food resilience and food sovereignty for certain commodity chains in the face of internal and external crises and shocks was identified as very important within the current context and in light of the medium- and long-term global context. This has been detailed in the recommendation section of the current study.