From Panic to a Real Migration Partnership

In Germany and Europe, the news is once again dominated by images of arriving refugees, just like in 2015 and 2016. The ongoing discussion is centered around finding ways to limit the number of migrants, mainly because there is a perception that immigration is burdensome at both local and national levels. However, this is only one side of the heated migration debate. The other side is closely tied to the image of one’s own country. In many parts of Germany, especially in small and medium-sized towns, politics has failed to convince the population of the inevitable post-migrant future of Germany in a globalized world, driven by demographic reasons. As a result, society is resisting immigration and seeking a – often right-wing extremist – return to a long gone past. Opposition leader Friedrich Merz succinctly summed up the defining debate on migration and national identity when he stated that the Berlin district of Kreuzberg with many migrant households is not representative of Germany as a whole.

In places where such a future has been embraced, immigration, whether of refugees or migrants, is seen as an opportunity and is generally well managed. Herbertshausen, a small Bavarian community, appears to be an exception among German small towns, as it remains surprisingly unaffected by the general panic that dominates the migration debate.  [1]However, with each new increase in refugee numbers, panic spreads in politics, as the old white Germany is being undermined by reality.

In liberal democracies that should adhere to international law, there can be no zero-migration. Only far-right regimes, who disregard international law and resort to brute force, are capable of achieving such a feat. Democratic parties must move away from panic mode and instead establish a rational and forward-looking migration policy, which will ultimately serve their own interests.

The Price of Panic

The panic in German and European politics is taking a toll on the lives of many migrants who are paying the ultimate price for it. According to official records, since 2014, nearly 28,000 migrants have drowned in the Mediterranean. These are just the registered numbers; the extent of human suffering is even greater. It is disheartening to see that Europe has lost its humanity and even organizations like SOS Mediterranean, honored with the Alternative Nobel Prize, can only provide a semblance of reassurance to those in our society still concerned about humanity. In the end, they contribute, albeit to a limited extent, to maintaining the status quo, as the icy wind continues to blow in the faces of people in need.

The number of people seeking to come to Europe for political and economic reasons will not decrease through any form of migration policies. . With wars and conflicts going on in different parts of the world, the number of refugees is expected to remain high in the foreseeable future. The United Nations reported over 100 million refugees worldwide by the end of 2022, a significant increase from less than 40 million in 2000. . Most refugees tend to stay in their own countries or neighboring states, with only a small portion seeking to settle in far-away lands. Economic factors are also significant drivers of migration, alongside wars and conflicts. Currently, most of the world’s refugees come from Syria, Ukraine, Afghanistan, and Venezuela. In Germany, the majority of asylum seekers come from Syria, Afghanistan, Turkey, Iraq, and Iran.

More Climate Refugees and Migration Partnerships

It is highly probable that global warming will significantly alter migration patterns. According to the World Bank, in less than 80 years, a broad strip around the equator will become largely uninhabitable due to global warming. Already, over 32 million people worldwide have left their homes, either temporarily or permanently, due to extreme weather events such as droughts, heatwaves, continuous rainfall, and storms, according to the UNHCR.

Climate protection progress in industrialized countries, China, and India is slow. Global carbon dioxide emissions are projected to rise to over 42 billion tons by 2050, following the post-pandemic resurgence. Global warming can no longer be stopped; it can only be contained through drastic measures, which are not currently anticipated. There is an increasing possibility of the global temperature rising up to six degrees by the end of the century.

As a result of global warming, certain areas in Europe will become uninhabitable. The rising sea levels will affect parts of the Netherlands and northern Germany, as well as major French and Italian cities like Bordeaux and Venice. People will need to flee, especially where water is scarce or rivers and streams regularly turn into raging floods. Discussions have already begun on abandoning Alpine valleys with only a few remaining inhabitants, as the cost of infrastructure restoration after landslides is prohibitively high.

Scientists estimate up to 2 billion climate refugees worldwide by 2100[2].  Given such high numbers, complete isolationism for Germany is hardly imaginable. The policies in Berlin and Brussels must prepare citizens for this impending development and make every effort to mitigate global warming. Instead of planned EU migration agreements aimed at stopping migration, we need to develop migration partnerships with African countries that focus on receiving African communities particularly affected by global warming in Europe. We must redirect German development cooperation funds towards this goal. . Rather than fighting the root causes of migration in Africa, which is often too late in many areas due to the unstoppable global warming, we must finance the reception of refugees in Germany and Europe. A new migration policy must primarily convince the population in Germany and Europe that there is no alternative to a regulated reception of migrants and that it is advantageous for the local population.

^[1]https://www.tagesschau.de/inland/gesellschaft/hebertshausen-gefluechtete-100.html

^[2]https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0264837715301812?via%3Dihub