Terms of reference for conducting research

on The Egypt sovereign debt and currency crisis

Rosa Luxemburg Stiftung, North Africa office

Background

Several North African economies are dependent on food, fuel, medicine, and industrial imports as well as significant external financing. A decade of political instability and of socially unjust donor-backed reforms exacerbated their vulnerability to external shocks. The pandemic and the war have hit hard the economic situation of the NA region, and spiking prices in global commodities markets have led countries like Egypt and Tunisia to lose their hard currency liquidity buffer to face their import bills, and led to a devaluation of their local currencies. As a result, inflation reached historically unprecedented levels (10 % in Tunisia, 25% in Egypt in December 2022). In fact, if the NA region has managed to “cover” its needs in 2022, barely by mobilizing foreign currencies from their tourism sector resources, remittances of the diaspora, or from foreign lending sparingly attributed, they will most probably be confronted in the coming years /months to harder times when tranches of loan amortization will be paid at a higher cost, and when sovereign bonds on the international market will come to maturity, as prospects of growth are declining, not only in the region but also with the trading partners (ie EU) but also due to climate changes impacts endured by the region. Taking into account the monetary policy pursued by the FED, which led to capital flight from Egypt and raised the cost of loan amortization ( the bill for external debt amortization is estimated average at approximately $40 billion per annum for Egypt for the next three years). The IMF deal, agreed on with Egypt, besides its socially high cost, will not be sufficient to solve the situation of the Balance of Payment crisis, and Gulf deposits and currency arrangements with other countries will not be without political costs.

General Objective of the research project:

With the aim to strengthen the resilience of NA countries through valuable knowledge production for civil society actors, policymakers, and scholars, this research aim to better understand the situation of currency, debt, and financial crises in the NA region. Toward this end, RLS proposes to contract researchers to conduct studies exploring the domestic and international variables driving both the accumulation of sovereign debt and the intensifying strains threatening NA economies’ Balance of Payments in specific NA countries (ie Egypt and Tunisia), by focusing specifically on the relationship between finance, politics and development and interrogating the causes and effects of the relation in question and presenting findings in a manner accessible to general readers as much as specialists, providing policy recommendations and help to advance an agenda for socially just economic and political decisions.

Object of the Call:

In this view, RLS North Africa Office is seeking to contract a researcher to conduct a research report on Egypt’s sovereign debt and currency crisis.

Content :

• The research report is a case study on Egypt
• It should include an introductory section dealing with International financial subordination, building on the International Political Economy approaches showing the relationship between capital markets and the economic impasses most of the countries of the region are encountering, and what it presents to Egypt to remain in a subordinate position in the global monetary and financial system.
• The four other sections, should

• Explore the root causes of the persistent Balance of Payment crisis
• Generate information and socio-political-economic analysis on the prospect of such a Debt-reliant growth strategy, What are the likely social and political consequences of an elongated economic crisis? Is a default strategy a possible scenario? What are the financial and political (internal and external) constraints? What are the consequences of “reducing the State’s footprint” and a move to a flexible exchange rate as pushed by the IMF? Whom are the different actors within and outside the state profiting from such situation? What are the implications of the political development in the MENA region on the situation in Egypt?
• Producing policy recommendations to generate a debate on alternatives for an economic recovery that bring positive change for the people.

Deliverables:

• 1 Research report (12k words), excluding graphs, bibliography, and annexes
• 1 Executive summary (2 pages maximum)
• 1 Analysis to be published in major media outlet

Languages

The publication language is English. (Translations to other languages will be decided by RLS).

Publishers

Rosa-Luxemburg-Stiftung –North Africa office.

The media outlet will be agreed between RLS and the researcher.

Target Groups:

Political decision makers especially in Egypt but also elsewhere.

Scholars, Media, NGOs and other civil society movements in the North African countries

Scholars, Media, NGOs and other civil society movements in the global North and South

Publishing date and scope of the final publication

• The research task is designed for 35 working days
• Scope: Maximum 60 pages (the research excluding graphs references and annexes should not exceed 12000words)
• Final Submission date of the research report: 15^th of June 2023.
• Final Submission date of the Analysis: 15^th of July 2023

Necessary qualification:

Proven experience in research on the above-described topics

Application

The researcher should submit the following documents:

• CV and a short biography describing the profile of the researcher
• Short proposal (2-3 pages max) that outline how the researcher is planning to conduct the research
• Price references/honorariums per working day (including taxes)

Proposal, Award and Tender submission deadline:

The application: (CV, proposal, and daily price reference) , must be submitted to: Procurement.NorthAfrica@rosalux.org , with the subject line: RLS-Egypt Sovereign Debt. no later than January 25^th, 2023.

*Proposals submitted after this date will not be accepted.

*Incomplete applications will not be considered.

*Only shortlisted candidates will be contacted.

The order will be issued as a service/or honorarium contract. The contract will be concluded between RLS North Africa office and the researcher beginning from 1 February until July 2023.

Timeline of awarding procedures and deliverables

Contact

For further information, please contact: Maha Ben Gadha, Senior Economic Program Manager at the North Africa Regional Office: maha.bengadha@rosalux.org