The Algerian strategy in the Sahel: Shift or adaptation

Executive summary
This study examines Algeria’s possible changing role in the Sahel conflict in the wake of the announcement of the termination of the French military operation Barkhane in 2022. Taking in to consideration the willingness of new President of Algeria, Abdelmadjid Tebboune, to play a more important role in the region after years of absenteeism due to Algieria’s domestic problems. On that regard, President Tebboune declared that, while an Algerian military intervention in the Sahel was not the solution, Algiers “will neither allow Northern Mali to become a sanctuary for terrorist organizations” nor will it accept the partition of the country. The paper starts by examining the extremely strategic importance of the Sahel region for Algeria and one in which it has played traditionally a major role. Right after independence Algeria was involved in the region, where different actors, including the former Libyan ruler Khadafy tried to destabilize the post-colonial country, using Tuareg fighters for his own political aspirations. Algeria’s policy towards the Tuaregs was strongly influenced by the political solution to its own “Tuaregs” having been able to successfully integrate them in to the post-independence political order by political integration and socio economic development policies. However, in neighboring Mali, shattered from the 1960s by successive Tuareg rebellions, a political integration was never pursued and instead the conflict dragged on for years weakening the stability of the country leading to the brink of collapse since 2012 with gradual disintegration of the political order there. Resorting to mediation in the Mali conflict, Algeria has consistently attempted to narrow down the differences between the various Malian actors involved in the conflict by insisting on an inclusive political solution rather than resorting to the use of force. The appointment of President Tebboune did so far little to change this as the country is deeply attached to this “mediation paradigm”. Rather, the change so far has been essentially on the renewal of Algiers diplomatic activism to implement the political solution. However, the presence of multiple and powerful factions in the Sahel region with extremely conflicting interests persists and makes it difficult to implement a peaceful solution. The rise of JNIM and to a lesser extent ISGS and despite heavy losses, including the recent elimination of Abu Adnane Al Sahraoui founder of ISGS, had so far no impact on its policy position refraining from a direct military intervention. Although the return of Algeria to the Sahel is certainly very positive, it remains to be seen whether a political solution can be implemented after the withdrawal of French and other foreign military forces in 2022 or whether Algeria decides to take a more assertive role there.