Connected Contradiction – Climate policy in the middle East and North Africa.

As it stands, in the coming years negotiations on how to deal with climate change will be taking place in a part of the world that, thus far, has barely come to the attention of international climate policy observers and activists: West Asia and North Africa, still mostly referred to as the Middle East and North Africa, or MENA. The region is not an easy one for climate campaigners. Most states are ruled by authoritarian regimes, and social movements that oppose governments are subject to harsh repression. In addition, many environmental policy debates are conducted using completely different terms than those common in Europe. Nor is classifying the region in terms of climate policy simple either, because it is made of up very different states: on the one hand, the rich oil exporters, and on the other hand, states that hardly contribute to climate change at all, and that due to poverty are ill-equipped to deal with its consequences.

This is not the only reason for the scarcity of studies or publications tackling climate policy in the region. In the media, security and geopolitical issues dominate the conversation about the Middle East and North Africa—migration and terrorism, crises and war—and this is also the case for research and politics. When the focus does get placed on the region’s societies, cultural topics get priority—religion first and foremost.

In the past few years, however, a change has been taking place: in academic research on the Middle East and North Africa, there is increasing interest in the question of how communities treat and shape their natural environment. At the same time, at an international level and in the development sector, the significance of environmental policy has grown since the 1990s. The severity of the effects of climate change has already become obvious: record temperatures, sand storms, heavy rains, and floods are more frequent, while rising sea levels threaten coastal cities and river deltas. The claim that a drought caused by climate change contributed to the outbreak of civil war in Syria was the subject of a serious albeit controversial discussion. However, a simple formula—things are getting hotter and drier—does not encompass the consequences of climate change in the Middle East and North Africa. Global warming is having a variety of effects in the region, depending on location and on who is impacted.

This is likewise valid for climate policy. With the 2015 Paris Agreement, the second binding international climate treaty, the focus of climate policy shifted. Unlike previous treaties, the aim is not only to reduce emissions from the developed world; all states worldwide are now obliged to structure their economies in a more environmentally friendly way. This presents a challenge for many states and stakeholders whose national economies are organized around the export and use of fossil fuels, and who have had to find, or still need to find, their role in this changed climate policy context. The present study aims to document this process, and thereby at least partly close the current gap in climate policy research on the Middle East and North Africa region.

The first question that presents itself is how the region should be defined. The Middle East and North Africa are to a large extent colonial constructs, as the term “Middle East” itself makes clear—the region is neither “middle” nor “east”, except from the perspective of Europe. Still, the term continues to be used as a way of examining the countries of North Africa and West Asia as a bloc. These countries do also share certain common features: the Arabic language, Islam as the dominant religion, a shared history as part of the Ottoman Empire and as European colonies up until independence in the 20th century. Despite their differing levels of prosperity, most of the states in the region share a similar economic structure and therefore face similar climate policy problems. There is no fixed definition for the Middle East and North Africa. Which states are included depends on the question being posed. In this study, the following countries are examined as part of the region: Morocco, Algeria, Tunisia, Libya, Egypt, Jordan, the Palestinian territories, Lebanon, Syria, Iran, Iraq, the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Oman, Qatar, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, and Yemen. [1]

These countries are totally diverse in terms of economy and standard of living—and as a result, also in terms of their contribution to climate change. The goal of this study is to do justice to this diversity, while still analyzing regional climate policy in a comprehensive way. After an overview of the effects of climate change in the region (chapter 2), the countries will be placed into several groups, with particular common qualities and interests with respect to climate change (chapter 3). The analysis first focuses on the level of nation states, for these are the major actors in the UN climate negotiations; further sub-chapters are dedicated to the special regional challenges to climate policy, as well as to climate activism beyond the state. In the last section (chapter 4) the question will be raised as to which emancipatory approaches exist (and could be supported) in this context. How can climate policy in the region be discussed without falling into colonial or orientalist patterns? Which progressive forces or approaches can be discerned, and potentially supported?

The study should thus provide an overview of climate policy in the region for those who have hitherto engaged little with the Middle East and North Africa, as well as facilitating an insight into international climate policy for those who are researching the region—with the hope that the exchange between both groups becomes more intensive, and that treatments of climate change in the region take on a more differentiated form.

[1] Turkey and Israel, which are also sometimes included, are outside the ambit of this study. In terms of climate policy requirements and their respective political and economic structures, these states are sharply distinguished from the others in the region. Turkey, already an OECD member when the Framework Convention on Climate Change was adopted, has a special status in the UN climate negotiations; it belongs to the group of Annex I countries but was long exempt from emissions reduction obligations. Israel only became a member of the OECD in 2010, and hence is not formally an Annex I country. In both countries there are active environmental movements that exercise pressure on governments—also a relevant difference from the other states discussed here (see chapter 3).